India is facing heightened uncertainty along its eastern frontier following the death sentence issued in absentia against former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina by an interim tribunal in Dhaka. The decision, delivered by what many observers describe as an unconstitutional court, has sparked political unrest in Bangladesh and raised significant geopolitical concerns in New Delhi.
Hasina, who fled Dhaka amid escalating tensions earlier this year, remains in India, which has made it clear it will not extradite her. Officials in New Delhi believe the verdict will trigger the most volatile period in Bangladesh’s politics since the country gained independence in 1971.
Hours after the verdict was announced on Monday, India’s Ministry of External Affairs released a restrained statement, emphasising its commitment to “peace, democracy, inclusion and stability” in Bangladesh. The ministry noted the verdict with caution, placing quotation marks around the name “International Crimes Tribunal of Bangladesh,” signalling doubts about its legitimacy.
The unrest in Dhaka intensified quickly. Protesters reportedly called for a blockade of the Indian High Commission, demanding that Hasina be returned or India should leave. Analysts warn that anti-India sentiment could escalate if New Delhi is perceived as sheltering Hasina.
Following Hasina’s exit, Bangladesh has witnessed a notable shift in foreign engagement, particularly with Pakistan. Dhaka has eased scrutiny on imports from Pakistan and welcomed a series of high-level visits from military, intelligence, and political officials from Islamabad.
This widening engagement has weakened Bangladesh’s traditionally close ties with India. Concerns deepened when Pakistan Army General Ahmed Sharif Choudhry suggested in an interview that Pakistan “could start from the east,” referencing tensions with India.
Security officials in New Delhi view the developments as a strategic setback. Hasina’s government was instrumental in curbing anti-India insurgent activity along the border and preventing Bangladesh from becoming a battleground for great-power rivalry involving the United States and China.
Legal experts and political analysts in both countries have questioned the validity of the tribunal that sentenced Hasina. The interim government led by Mohammed Yunus, who was appointed after Hasina’s ouster, is not elected. The tribunal is not recognised by Bangladesh’s parliament, and Hasina was not allowed to select her own defence lawyer. The state-appointed lawyer was reportedly affiliated with Jamaat-e-Islami, the Awami League’s long-time ideological rival.
The charges accuse Hasina of inciting violence in student-led protests last year, resulting in more than 1,400 deaths. The tribunal alleges she used police, helicopters, drones, and “lethal weapons” against demonstrators. Her supporters and numerous Bangladesh scholars dismiss the verdict as politically motivated.
The Awami League, Bangladesh’s largest political party, has been significantly weakened. Its senior leaders are either in hiding in India, imprisoned in Bangladesh, or operating underground. A planned nationwide lockdown on the day of the verdict gained little traction as fear of state reprisal kept supporters off the streets.
National elections, expected in February, were seen as a potential chance for the Awami League to re-enter mainstream politics. However, Yunus banned the party from participating under an anti-terrorism law last week. With election dates still unconfirmed, uncertainty looms over Bangladesh’s political future.
The irony of the situation is not lost on analysts. Hasina oversaw several elections where the opposition boycotted the polls, accusing her of rigging and refusing to install a neutral caretaker government.
India’s preferred outcome would be free and fair elections in which the Awami League participates, restoring political stability in Bangladesh. But with Hasina now a refugee in New Delhi, any effort to influence the interim government risks being interpreted as interference.
Analysts warn that if political avenues remain closed, the Awami League could revert to the tactics of 1971, when it formed the Mukti Bahini to fight Pakistan’s military. That scenario would again draw India into the centre of Bangladesh’s internal conflict.
Despite calls for creative diplomacy, observers note little evidence that Bangladesh’s interim leadership, Pakistan, or even India are willing to take this path. With rising tensions, surging anti-India rhetoric, and significant geopolitical stakes, India’s eastern front has entered a period of precarious uncertainty.
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